harrah's turbo bounty analysis

First stop of the day was Harrah's for a $40+10 bounty turbo tournament with 10k starting stacks, 50/100 blinds and 15 minute increments. Should be interesting because I love to play bounty turbos on FTP where it's loose and fast. First time playing live poker in a while, I sat there playing snug just trying to build up table feel especially because the tables were starting 11 handed which is fucking beat. Great table I was in seat 5. Seat 1 was a some 35ish year old lady, seat 2 tight nervous looking motherfucker, seat 3 is supertight guy wearing a hat, seat 4 is another tight passive guy, to my left in seat 6 is another 35ish year old woman who was talkative and seemed to be comfortable at the table limped a lot and liked to make a lot of small raises, seat 7 was a terrible loose-passive guy with some mustache action going, seat 8 was an older loose-passive guy, seat 9 was a really awesome looking jewish guy with a gold chain on his neck and was wearing a track suit also super loose passive, seat 10 is another loose passive guy but would fold quickly if he bricked flop, and seat 11 was a guy who just wanted to sit at a poker table I guess, didn't play or say anything.

The best indicator of the table play was this hand:
Seat 11 posts SB of 200
Seat 1 posts BB of 400
Seat 2 limps UTG
Seat 3 limps
Seat 4 folds
I fold
Seat 6 raises to 1,400
Seat 7 calls 1,400
Seat 8 calls 1,400
Seat 9 calls 1,400
Seat 10 calls 1,400,
SB folds
BB calls 1,000 more
Seat 2 Folds
Seat 3 Folds

9,000 in the pot with 6 people looking at the flop, the pot already has practically everybody covered except the jewish guy.

Flop is 9h 7d 5h
BB checks
Seat 6 bets 3500 and has about 5,000 left
Seat 7 folds
Seat 8 folds
Seat 9 calls 3500 quickly
Seat 10 calls 3500
BB calls 3500

23,000 chip pot and 4 people left in the pot, a everyone except the jewish guy has between 3k and 5k left

Turn is 3h
BB deliberates and checks
Seat 6 checks
Seat 9 grabs a handful of chips and fiddles around before checking
Seat 10 checks

River is a brick
BB deliberates a little bit again before checking
Seat 6 quickly checks
Seat 9 leads out for 2,000
Seat 10 folds
BB calls
Seat 6 folds

Showdown is Jh7h for the Jewish dude in seat 9, and Th6h for the woman in the BB.

Awesome hand for me, not only do I know how horrible everybody plays now but now I've got almost everybody at the table covered for bounties.

PULL THE TRIGGER VS MUSTACHE first hand of 200/400 blinds

A couple hands later I get 9s8s utg+2 and I obviously feel like playing a pot. With hands like AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ, and KQ I'd probably pop it to 1,600 or so based on how everybody plays and get huge value off top pair, but with JJ-88 and mid-ranged suited connectors I wanted to keep the pot at a manageable size and win a medium pot with a pair or huge pot with a monster. I make it 1,000 with 98s and surprisingly got called in only one spot by seat 7 mustachio.

Flop is 5h 6h 6d with a pot of 1,600. Effective stack size is opponent's 5000ish.

I really feel like this particular player doesn't differentiate one bet size from another, he's either calling or he's not. It's probably really questionable to continuation bet this guy as he doesn't bet himself and will probably check behind if I check letting me see a free card. I lead out for 700 into him and he calls rather quickly. At this point I feel like there's 4 different holdings this guy would call with but not raise.

1.) Pair smaller than 55. Maybe but less likely 99, 88, 77 for overpairs.
2.) Ace high
3.) Overcards
4.) A draw to a flush, but more likely a draw to a goofy straight as he likes to play any two suiteds and is the type of player who would definitely peel any straight draw.

After he calls I'm going to check/fold the turn if he bets. The turn comes a King which is a bluffable card to some players but not to this guy. Either he just paired his King or he's going to be upset that I bet into him again and never fold anything until he sees all of the cards on board. He quickly checks behind me and I can't for the life of me remember what the river was except that it was not an Ace, because I was already trying to think of how much I was going to bet on the river to any river card. Because either I'm going to bet my straight for value, a pair of 9s or 8s for value, and bluff everything but an Ace because I think Ace-high is his most likely hand on the flop. River is a non-Ace, and I went for a 2,500 bluff expecting to get called by any pocket pair, and maybe Ace-high. Bet size is on the much larger size on the river than the flop because I think he is a little more weary my hand now that he can't anticipate another card coming.

He thinks for about 45 seconds with a strong itch to do something other than folding before he taps the table and throws his cards in the muck where one bounces off the felt and I briefly see a 7d. Had to have been A7 or a straight draw even though he starts talking to someone across the table like he had a pair.

FINDING GOOD MUSTACHE VALUE 200/400 blinds two hands later

A tight player utg limps, I raise to 1,400 with QJo, mustache in seat 7 calls, it's folded around to tight UTG who looks a tad peeved and folds.

3,800 in the pot with effective stack of 6,000ish after he won the previous pot by moving in on the flop and taking it down uncontested.

Flop comes QT8 with two hearts. I already don't see any folding top pair, good kicker, draw to a gutshot, vs a loose player, with a bounty on his head anywhere in the hand. Question is how to value town the mustache for all or most of his chips. The best plan of attack seems like a small bet on the flop followed by the rest on the turn. He called the first bet on the flop and folded to the second.

AK JAM OR FOLD? 200/400 blinds about 10 hands later, right before break

With Dave Sandel standing right behind me, a really tight player at the table with about 9k in front of him raises to 1,200 from EP. This guy is obviously not messing around. Probably AA-99, AK, or AQ. I don't think calling is a very viable option here because if I call and it's a heads up pot he wins when I miss. He doesn't pay when I hit, either he folds underpairs or splits with AK. I hit and he has AA or KK and still manage to lose. If I call and a bunch of other people call behind me, I'm squeezed between a tight early raisor and a bunch of active players which is definitely a +EV play getting weaker hands to call, but super risky for my tournament life when I don't need to be with players this bad. There's an argument for folding but fuck folding's face, it's a turbo bounty, and there's one or two players at the table who have me covered. So 3-betting becomes the best option. He'll fold anything he stepped out of line with if that was somehow the case, he'll fold the bottom half of his real hand range, and shove the other half.

My mind is made up that I'm not going to 3-bet and fold to anybody that doesn't have me covered. I opt to raise it to a little under full pot size to 4,000. making the pot 13,000 if he moves in, and an easy 5,000 more to call. The actual away from the table math: Pokerstove numbers even if he's shoving QQ+ puts AKo at 30% to win, getting 2.6:1 I would need 27% to call. He'll probably fold a ton so the 3-bet will show a big return as well as set up the possibility for a $10 bounty. It's folded around to the initial raisor who thinks for a couple minutes before saying nice hand and showing the guy next to him pocket Jacks before folding. I guess I just look like a dangerous motherfucker.

A much tougher spot would have been if I had JJ, TT, or 99 in this same scenario. 11 handed with a really tight guy raising early and not way too much pressure from the blinds. Thinking about it now. It's crazy to say, but I think I would muck 99, call with TT, and raise JJ and reluctantly go to the felt if he 4-bets. If I raise with 99 I'm playing mostly for fold equity against a narrow range - not fun. I'm playing fit or fold if I call - I'm in position against him but I have about 6 active players behind who don't like to fold preflop that will have position on me, put me in a squeeze and then cripple me when the flop is 357 and the first raisor looks disgusted and checks to me and I bet to protect my hand only to find out somebody called with 75s. The thought of getting raised by one of these players probably indicates a really strong hand and sets up a disgusting spot where I'd be getting about 2:1 on my money from the numerous players with about 7k chips behind me Even though the difference between TT and 99 is pretty small, I'm going to play TT in this spot but I'm definitely not 3-betting this guy that TT never crushes when continues playing the hand, and makes hands that I'd want to play against fold even though there are probably very little of those type hands in his range. Another big difference is that when a player behind me with a 7k stack moves all-in, I have an easy decision coming up. If the EP raisor continues, I fold. If he folds, I am going into stare mode for a minute to "make a read" and calling probably 90% of the time getting 2:1 with Tens. Running the away from the table hand ranges through POKERSTOVE makes me pretty confident that folding 99, but calling TT to the initial raise based on how I would fare against an all-in reraise behind me.

Against a shoving range of 88+,AQs+,AQo+
99 has a 41% equity
TT has a 47% equity

Against a realistically tighter range of 99+,AKs,AKo
99 has a 31% equity
TT has a 40% equity

TT is a clear call getting 2:1 the both times when the initial raisor folds, whereas 99 is a call vs the slightly looser range and a fold against the tighter range. The tough spot with TT comes when I call and there are a few calls behind me, the flop is all undercards and the initial raisor leads into a big field probably fold in this spot. Or if I call preflop and the pot is heads up and the flop has one J or one Q on it, in which case I am probably going to the felt on.

With JJ the reason for raising is simple, it's a turbo bounty tournament and there's a bunch of cash games running 15 yards away. Fuck your mouth if you do anything different than raise in this spot, busting early in tournaments is nothing to be ashamed of.

Stack is at 17k going into the first break.

AFTER BREAK TABLE SWITCH 300/600 blinds

Came back, got 0 cards, 2 players got moved from our table and, 1 player got eliminated for the first from our table all tournament. After playing 8 handed for 5 minutes or so, our table was broken up and I moved to another table with like 15k in chips. When I walked over to my new table a player was making an exit in a squareoff of two goofy looking hands, I didn't see the action or look at the pot size so I didn't know what to make of it. My first impression of the table was that it was very loose and aggressive. A majority of the hands I watched were raised pots with some action on the flop. Which I probably should have taken into consideration before this hand:

Dealt 22 utg
kid to my left limps
lady left to him moves her small stack all in for about 5k more
folded around to me and was strongly considering moving all in to isolate, but folded
kid to my left says I think I'll gamble and calls
the lady's AA holds up vs the kid's 99, and he now becomes the shortest stack.
After a 66572 board. In retrospect I probably should have just thrown deuces away utg after what I had seen.

Another interesting hand worth noting despite not really knowing what the action was that I was not involved in

Seat 9 posts SB 300
Seat 1 posts BB 600
Seat 2 raises ???
Seat 3-6 fold
I fold in seat 7
the kid in Seat 8 calls
SB folds
BB calls

The flop 6d 6h 2d
BB moves in for ???
Seat 2 has an AK face and AK faces some more before folding
Seat 8 calls his last 2k or so

Both look like they just got told they just ate human being meat while they wait for the other to turn their hand over. BB shows AcQc and the kid in seat 8 shows 4h3h, and AK face moans about folding AK. The kid rivers a 4 and survives.

Two players get eliminated and some new meat comes in a woman in seat 2 and a guy in seat 4.

ACCUMULATING WITH JUNK 300/600 - 400/800 blinds and a stack at 13k

10 hands went by without any preflop aggression from anybody at all, so I decided to take the initiative myself. Raising and taking it twice in a row with a couple trash hands. On my third attempt to raise a trash hand I get called by the kid in seat 8, flop comes with a bunch of cards, I c-bet and he folds quickly. Not bad, I picked up about 5k in 6 hands with absolutely nothing.

UH I CALL 500/1000 stack at 17k or so

Sitting in the BB, it's folded around to a guy who's 3 off the button who hasn't done anything since I got there who moves in for about 10k more. It's folded to me and I take a peek down and see red Ten black Ten. I maybe should have thought about it for longer than it took to process the numbers and colors but never folding TT in this spot. Ever.

He turns over KJo. The board comes 5 babies and I accomplished winning a coinflip, which is the biggest mark of all good tournament players. $10 bounty in my pocket.

BIG DAVE SITS, I BLIND STEAL A LOT 500/1000 - 600/1200, 28k stack

Dave Sandel's table gets broken up and he finds his way over to the seat of the player I just eliminated. The table just got really sweet for a couple reasons - my dad plays NLHE pretty passively and loose, and the dealer at the table is really chatty and distracting some of the other players and now nobody seems like they want to be aggressive or defend their blinds. I keep a steady storm of raises coming never once getting reraised. Much of the time when I'm getting called my c-bets are taking down the pot.

After the guys in seats 4, 5, 6 all limp in I look down at Q2o and make it 6k from the cutoff. The guy in seat 4 looks like he has a vendetta against me before folding. The other two guys fold, and then Big Dave wants to make sure everyone knows how I'm raising every hand apparently and states that I'm playing very aggressively.

guy in seat 4 plays the last couple hands before break very aggressively stealing a couple thousand.

BACK FROM BREAK 800/1600 blinds 65k stack

I'm really planning on winning this tournament right now, with 50 people left the average chips is at about 24k, which I'm well ahead of. I have more than double the chips of everybody at my table and I really love tablemates. Not only have I more than doubled my stack in the 30 minutes leading up to break, I did it without ever seeing a turn card. I have the greatest spot at the table. The two guys to my right never raise without great hands but limp and fold to raises, the kid to my left is easy to read and looks like he wants to part of me, the woman who is in the BB when I'm on the button hasn't played any hand except for Aces, the guy in the BB when I'm cutoff hasn't played any hand except for the AQ hand from earlier, the woman to his left defends her blinds with calls and then folds to c-bets. The only guy who looks like he might want to play some poker with me is the guy in seat 4.

I'm in the BB and it's folded to the guy who hasn't played anything except AQ mentioned earlier, and he moves in for about 5,000 over the bb. While my dad deliberates I look down at Ac7c which is more than enough to call the all in. Big Dave calls, and I think about it for a little bit. I hate to play dry pots out of position when I could be dominated by either guy, it's got to be one of the least lucrative spots in poker. So I weigh the pros/cons in my head. And my imaginary list looks a little something like this:

cons - dry pot, out of position vs a guy who willingly called with active players behind him and is the guy who is currently second in chips at the table, if I raise to isolate which would probably be my preferred play online I run the risk of ruining my table image and my ability to steal.

pros - getting nearly 3:1 on a call, big dave is pretty easy to read and gives free cards, would never fold a set to a flush, $10 bounty. UH NM I CALL.

The flop is Q86 with two hearts. There's nothing in there for me I check, Dad checks. Turn is the Ah. With 3 hearts on board I'm not trying to create a side pot out of position when getting called means I'm behind or am trying to avoid a heart, I check, Dad checks. River is a non-heart Ten, I check, Dad Checks. Dad shows 55, short stack shows A4 for a split. I think I played this hand pretty standardly but my dad could have played it a bit better.

You could definitely make an argument for isolating preflop, but calling is also okay, folding is tight but okay. Of the 3 I think I would probably lean towards making a small iso-raise and throw up and fold if somebody shoves. After I call, I have passed up the opportunity to raise which should tip him off immediately that I need help on the flop. I rarely see players who understand how to play in dry pots even though they are pretty common in tournaments. A lot of time, two players just elect to play nice and try to eliminate the all in player, but much of the time that isn't correct at all.

Let's say the flop is AKT, that is an obvious board for Dave to go for a check-down play because there is so little chance that 55 is going to get through two players, one who can't go anywhere.

The Q86 board is completely different because not only does he have a great chance of being ahead of the all-in player still, but he can push me out of a hand that has 6 outs to win or even push me off a hand that currently beats his such as A8 or 77. The only time his bet doesn't help is when I have a pocket pair smaller than his, a big hand, or there is a change in payout that happens solely due to this player being eliminated.

I bet 100% of the time on that flop in Dave's shoes.

OHYEAH AA 1000/2000 blinds 70k

The guy in seat 4 has been pretty active ith some limps and some raises, from all sorts of positions and is starting to get erratic. He was up to 50k, down to 9k, up to 40k, back down to 25k. And has detracted from my stealing a little bit lately. I've raised twice so far at this blind level and both times to 5000. Once going uncontested and another getting called by the woman in seat 2 who donk bet small into me and I folded. Seat 4 is the BB. Something felt awesome when I got my first card and I peeked at an Ace of hearts. The two guys to my right fold, and I peek at my second card the Ace of spades and after double checking I raise to 5,000. It's folded around to the big blind who looks at his hole cards and quickly announces all in for about 22,000 more. I call and table my Aces, and he tables 9c6c. The flop has two clubs on it and someone says "it's never easy", the turn comes Kc and I'm dead. It honestly didn't bother me because of how badly I have the table dominated, I've still got 43k in chips which is good for 2nd at the table. The biggest hurt is not getting the $10 bounty.

BOTTOM PAIR SHOVE 1000/2000 blinds

I'm back on the move trying to accumulate some blinds when I ran across a hand I'm not sure I like the way I played it.

It's folded around to me and I'm two off the button, and I look at Td3d and raise to 6k. It's folded over to the woman who had been defending and then folding to c-bets who calls the 4k.

The pot has 13,000 in it and the effective stack is about 16k
Flop is Ks Jh 3h
BB checks to me
I look at her stack up and down and announce all in at almost the same time she picks her chips up and holds them out forward.

I started to get ready to turn my bluff over but she didn't do anything yet and I ask "do you call?" but she was apparently just trying to put her chips out for me to see them and she says "no, I was just showing you how much" and folds.

In a redo, I think I'd probably more likely go for a probe bet and fold to a raise and shut down to a call, but the aggression got the job done here.

QUEENS GET ACTION 1000/2000 blinds 55k stack

I'm UTG+1 and I look down at two black Queens and make the standard 5k I'm making a steal raise. Much to my delight the kid to my left who had been really quiet lately. Moves all in for 15k on top, it folds around to me and I call. He tables 77.

The flop is 3 small cards with two clubs, the turn comes up 7c and he shouts in my fucking ear, so he's got a set and now I've got a flush draw which I'm very very long overdue to hit, but alas did not. So all of my steals work out great, and then I get all in as a 4:1 two times in the past 10 minutes only to lose both. That's poker bitches.

SEAT 4 YOU FUCKING ASSHOLE 1200/2400 - 1500/3000 30k stack

Seat 4 has been steady playing like a retard, with tons of swings. Giving chips away and then hitting his lucky hand when he's all in, 3 times or so. On big Dave's crippling hand, he moves in with QJ, and seat 4 quickly calls with 44 for his tourney life. Dealer burns and puts three cards face down, and with a Q in the window seat 4 looks like he's finally finished, but the door card is a 4. And he cheers and jeers. Dad bites the dusk a little bit later.

MY EXIT 1500/3000 14k left

Getting raped by the blinds, I made one steal attempt and got reraised. Seat 4 has once again shipped his chips and doubled up kid next to me who has taken out the super tight lady next to him and then he gave those chips away to the guy with the mullet to my right. On the previous hand I folded K2s in the bb to an EP raisor which was a mistake with the blinds being so large.

The next hand I have about 12k left after posting the BB. The AQ guy min raises from EP. Seat 4 moves in for less than me and I look down at 9c7c. pot looks like this 4,500 + 6,000 + 10k = 20.5k. Seems like an easy decision, probably in the 30% equity range vs the ranges of the two other guys plus an opportunity to get a bounty, maybe the first raisor makes a crazy fold and I'm heads up against seat 4 and he shows 87 in a creative dream world situation. To my surprise the kid to my left calls, and the EP player calls. I have a stake in the main pot and side pot 1. The flop is Kx 5c 2x. The kid to my left goes all in which was upsetting, and the first raisor folds.

The kid to my left turns over 32o. NOT A TYPO, THREE-TWO OFFSUIT. And the seat 4 guy turns over TT, Jesus christ. the turn is a 6. So I've got an 8 to justify ever playing poker again, and a 9 or 7 to win the side pot. River is a brick and I'm gone. Beat.